Here’s the math, the strategy, and the honest answer most people don’t want to hear — but need to.
I get this question more than almost any other right now: “Keith, should I just wait until rates come down?”
It’s a fair question. Rates have been elevated for a few years, and there’s a natural instinct to hold off, stay in your rental, and wait for a better number. I understand that thinking completely.
But after 15 years in the mortgage business, I can tell you honestly: the “wait for rates” strategy has cost more buyers more money than almost anything else I’ve seen. And it’s not because rates don’t eventually drop — sometimes they do. It’s because the math almost never works out the way people imagine it will when they’re waiting.
Let me show you exactly why, and then let’s talk about what you can actually do about it right now in Florida.
The Problem With Waiting: What Actually Happens While You Sit on the Sidelines
When buyers decide to wait for rates to drop, they’re usually picturing one scenario: rates fall, home prices stay the same, and they swoop in with a lower monthly payment. Simple.
Here’s what actually tends to happen in Florida’s housing market while you’re waiting:
Home Prices Don’t Wait
Florida has seen consistent home price appreciation over the past decade. Waiting 12–18 months for rates to drop often means paying significantly more for the same home. A lower rate doesn’t help if the purchase price climbed $20,000–$40,000 in the meantime.
You Keep Paying Rent
Every month you wait is another month your rent check builds someone else’s equity. The average Florida renter is paying $1,500–$2,200/month in many markets — money that disappears with zero return. Your mortgage payment, on the other hand, is partially yours.
Rate Drops Are Unpredictable
The Fed, inflation, global economic conditions — these don’t move on a schedule. People have been “waiting for rates to drop” since 2022. Some are still waiting. No one can tell you with certainty when — or how much — rates will fall.
Competition Heats Up When Rates Fall
When rates do drop, every buyer who was sitting on the sidelines jumps back into the market at once. Inventory tightens, bidding wars return, and you may end up paying more anyway — just at a lower rate.
Let’s Run the Real Numbers
I think in numbers, so let me show you a real comparison. Here’s a scenario that plays out all the time in Florida right now:
| Scenario | Buy Today | Wait 18 Months |
|---|---|---|
| Home Purchase Price | $320,000 | $340,000 (~3% appreciation) |
| Interest Rate | 6.875% | 5.875% (assumed 1% drop) |
| Down Payment (5%) | $16,000 | $17,000 |
| Loan Amount | $304,000 | $323,000 |
| Monthly P&I Payment | ~$1,997 | ~$1,912 |
| Rent Paid While Waiting | — | ~$27,000 (18 mo × $1,500) |
| Equity Built in 18 Months | ~$8,200 | $0 |
| Monthly Savings from Waiting | — | ~$85/month |
| Break-Even on $27,000 Rent Paid | — | 26+ years |
The Strategy Smart Buyers Are Using Right Now: “Marry the House, Date the Rate”
There’s a phrase we use in the mortgage industry that I think is genuinely good advice: Marry the house, date the rate.
What that means is: lock in a home at today’s price, get into the market, and then refinance when rates eventually drop. You’re not stuck at today’s rate forever — the house is the long-term commitment, the rate is adjustable.
This strategy works especially well when you combine it with a few of the programs we have available right now:
Temporary Rate Buydown Programs
One of the best-kept secrets for buyers in the current market is the temporary rate buydown. Here’s how it works:
A seller or builder contributes money at closing to temporarily lower your interest rate for the first 1–3 years of your loan. A popular version is the 2-1 buydown, which works like this:
Year 1
Your rate is reduced by 2%. If your note rate is 6.875%, you pay interest at 4.875% for the entire first year. Significant savings right out of the gate.
Year 2
Your rate is reduced by 1%. You pay at 5.875% for year two. Still meaningfully below your note rate.
Year 3 Onward
Your full note rate of 6.875% kicks in — but by then, many buyers have refinanced into a lower permanent rate anyway.
Who Pays for the Buydown?
Often the seller or builder, as a negotiating tool in today’s market. In many cases this is essentially a free benefit to the buyer — you just have to know to ask for it.
In a market where sellers have more incentive to negotiate, getting a seller-paid rate buydown is very achievable right now — particularly on new construction. This is something we actively help buyers negotiate and structure.
Down Payment Assistance in Florida
One of the other major objections to buying now is the down payment. If you’re holding off partly because of cash reserves, there’s good news: down payment assistance programs in Florida are active and accessible right now.
We have multiple DPA programs available with no income limits and options that don’t require you to be a first-time home buyer. Some programs offer fully forgivable grants — meaning you don’t pay the money back at all. Paired with FHA financing, this can get qualified buyers into a home with very little out of pocket.
Zero Down Options Are Still Available
If your situation qualifies, there are still two legitimate zero-down mortgage programs available in Florida in 2026:
USDA Rural Development Loans — No down payment required for eligible properties in rural and suburban areas. More of Florida qualifies than most people realize, including parts of Marion County, Alachua, Citrus, and many other Central Florida counties. Income limits apply, but deductions mean your effective limit may be higher than you think.
VA Home Loans — If you’ve served in the military, your VA benefit gives you $0 down, no monthly mortgage insurance, and very competitive rates. There is no better mortgage program available to anyone, period. If you have this benefit and aren’t using it, call me.
5 Myths About Buying a Home in a High-Rate Environment — Debunked
“I should wait until rates are back to 3% before buying.”
The 3% rates of 2020–2021 were a historic anomaly driven by a global pandemic and emergency Fed intervention. Most economists do not expect rates to return to those levels. Waiting for 3% may mean waiting indefinitely — while prices and rents continue to rise.
“High rates mean the market is going to crash, so I should wait for prices to drop.”
Florida’s housing market is driven by population growth, limited inventory, and consistent inbound migration — not just interest rates. Prices have remained stubborn even with elevated rates. A significant correction would require a dramatic shift in supply and demand that simply hasn’t materialized in most Florida markets.
“Renting is smarter than buying right now because at least I’m not locked into a high rate.”
Renting gives you flexibility but zero equity. Your landlord’s mortgage payment stays the same while your rent increases every year. Homeownership builds wealth over time; renting does not. And remember — you can refinance a mortgage when rates drop. You can’t retroactively recover rent money.
“I can’t afford to buy right now with rates this high.”
Between USDA zero-down financing, VA benefits, FHA with down payment assistance, and temporary rate buydowns, there are more tools available to make homeownership affordable than most buyers realize. The number that shows on a rate website doesn’t tell the whole story. A conversation with a broker who knows all the options does.
“If I buy now and rates drop, I’m stuck at a high rate forever.”
Refinancing exists precisely for this reason. If rates drop meaningfully after you buy, you can refinance into a lower rate. The home price you locked in today doesn’t go up when you refinance. This is the “marry the house, date the rate” strategy in action.
Florida-Specific Factors That Make Waiting Even Riskier
Florida isn’t just any real estate market. A few factors make the “wait and see” strategy especially costly here:
Population Growth Is Relentless
Florida continues to be one of the fastest-growing states in the country. People move here every day from higher-cost states, and they bring purchasing power with them. That sustained demand keeps a floor under home prices in a way that doesn’t exist in slower-growing markets.
Ocala and Marion County Are Growing Fast
Our local market in Ocala has seen significant growth in recent years — new construction is active, infrastructure investment is happening, and the area continues to attract buyers priced out of coastal markets. Getting into this market ahead of continued growth has historically been the right move.
Insurance Costs Are Rising
Florida homeowner’s insurance costs have risen sharply in recent years. Buyers who delay purchasing may find that the overall cost of ownership increases even if mortgage rates improve, because insurance premiums have gone up in the meantime. It’s not just the rate — it’s the whole payment picture.
New Construction Incentives Won’t Last Forever
Right now, many Florida builders are offering meaningful closing cost contributions, rate buydowns, and incentives to move inventory. Those incentives exist because builders need to sell. When rates drop and buyer demand surges, those incentives go away and you’re competing again. If new construction is on your radar, right now is one of the better times to negotiate. Check out new homes in Ocala to see what’s available from our local builder partners.
When Waiting Might Actually Make Sense
I want to be fair here, because I’m not trying to tell everyone to rush out and buy a house tomorrow. There are real situations where waiting is the right call:
Your Credit Needs Work
If your score is under 580–620, spending 6–12 months improving your credit could unlock better program options and meaningfully lower your rate. That’s time well spent.
Job or Income Instability
Lenders want to see stable employment history. If you’ve recently changed industries, started a new business, or have inconsistent income, spending time building that track record first makes sense.
You’re Moving in Less Than 2–3 Years
Buying a home makes the most financial sense when you plan to stay. If you know you’ll be relocating in less than two years, the transaction costs of buying and selling may outweigh the benefits of ownership.
You Need More Savings
If buying right now would drain your reserves entirely, it may be worth a few more months of saving. You want to own your home — not be owned by it. Having reserves after closing matters.
If you’re in one of those situations, I’ll tell you that honestly. My job isn’t to sell you a mortgage — it’s to help you make the best financial decision for your situation. But if none of those apply, and you’re waiting purely for rates to drop, I’d encourage you to reconsider.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are mortgage rates expected to do in Florida in 2026?
No one can predict this with certainty — anyone who tells you otherwise is guessing. The Fed’s rate decisions, inflation data, and global economic conditions all play a role. Most market observers expect gradual, modest easing over time, but not a return to the historic lows of 2020–2021. Planning your life around a predicted rate drop is not a financial strategy.
What’s the minimum credit score to buy a home in Florida right now?
It depends on the loan program. FHA financing allows scores as low as 580 with 3.5% down, and we can go to 560 with 5% down. USDA and VA generally prefer 620+. Conventional financing typically starts at 620–640 depending on the lender. Call us and we’ll tell you exactly where you stand.
How does a temporary rate buydown actually work?
A buydown is funded at closing — usually by the seller or builder — and placed into an escrow account that subsidizes your interest rate for a set period. A 2-1 buydown lowers your rate by 2% in year one and 1% in year two, then settles at your permanent rate in year three. You’re not changing your loan — you’re essentially pre-paying interest to lower early payments. Learn more about temporary buydowns here.
Can I refinance if rates drop after I buy?
Yes, absolutely. Refinancing allows you to replace your existing mortgage with a new one at a lower rate. There are closing costs involved, so we typically look for a rate improvement of at least 0.75%–1% to make a refinance financially worthwhile. The general rule of thumb is that you want to recoup closing costs within 24–36 months of the lower payment.
Are there really zero-down mortgage options in Florida right now?
Yes. USDA loans require no down payment for eligible properties and borrowers. VA loans offer zero down for qualifying veterans and active-duty service members. For FHA buyers who need help with the down payment, we also have down payment assistance programs in Florida that can cover your down payment entirely in some cases.
Is it a good time to buy in Ocala, Florida specifically?
Ocala is one of Florida’s fastest-growing markets and remains significantly more affordable than coastal metros. With active new construction, expanding infrastructure, and strong inbound migration, the fundamentals of the local market are solid. Whether it’s the “right time” ultimately depends on your personal financial readiness — but the market conditions in Ocala are favorable for buyers who are ready to move.
Ready to Find Out What You Actually Qualify For?
Stop guessing and let’s run the real numbers for your situation. Pre-approval takes less than 24 hours and costs you nothing. Whether you’re buying now or planning for the future, knowing where you stand is always the right first step.
Apply for Pre-Approval Reach Out to Keith
Keith Meredith — Division President, Black Rock Mortgage
Keith Meredith is a licensed mortgage broker with 15 years of experience and the founder of Black Rock Mortgage, a division of Coast 2 Coast Mortgage. Licensed in 40+ states. He has originated over $100 million in mortgages and specializes in helping Florida buyers find the right program for their situation — not just the easiest one to sell.
Feel free to call or text message me directly at 
